El Niño early action urged as extreme weather looms

[SciDev.Net] Governments must move quickly to prepare for a fast developing El Niño event that will bring extreme weather to multiple regions, compounding existing crises that threaten food security and human safety, climate experts warn.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said El Niño conditions already underway in the Pacific Ocean will strengthen rapidly in the coming months, raising the risk of heatwaves, floods and droughts worldwide.

“Extreme heat, droughts and floods are once again set to devastate communities across Latin America, Eastern and Southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific,” warned Tom Fletcher, UN under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator, in a statement on Monday (13 July).

He said forecasts showed this El Niño “looks even worse” than the last, which left tens of millions of people in need of food, nutrition, water, sanitation, health, agricultural support and protection in 2023-24.

“The places least equipped to absorb another shock are the ones in the crosshairs.”

Bob Kitchen, vice president for emergencies, International Rescue Committee

Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan will be among the most impacted, according to the International Rescue Committee.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon which occurs every two to seven years when sea surface temperatures rise in the tropical eastern Pacific. It can affect weather worldwide, triggering both warmer, drier weather and heavy rainfall and flooding.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says El Niño conditions will likely strengthen over the rest of 2026 and persist into early 2027. It says the event could be among the largest since records began in 1950.

In its 15 June update, NOAA said forecasters were predicting a 63 per cent chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding two degrees Celsius above average in the eastern Pacific, which would constitute a “very strong” El Nino, often described as “Super” El Niño.

The main difference between this and previous events, says Mat Collins, head of maths and statistics at the University of Exeter in the UK, is it is happening in a world which has already warmed nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius. “Hence vulnerable regions are hit by the ‘double whammy’ of global warming and El Niño.”

Fletcher also highlighted compounding crises, adding: “It comes on top of widespread conflict, rising numbers of people on the move and as soaring fuel, fertiliser and food prices are squeezing the most vulnerable families—while the humanitarian system reels from deep cuts.”

He said the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs was ready to disburse US$100 million in emergency funding, with US$20 million already allocated for “anticipatory action” in six countries.

Madagascan meteorologist Andriamihaja Ranaivoson, head of the Regional Meteorological Service in Boeny, told SciDev.Net: “One aspect that particularly concerns me is the exceptional speed of the expected development of this event.

“Observations and forecasts show a very rapid increase in the Niño 3.4 index,” the index used to track El Niño’s intensity, he says, noting that the 2026 event was developing faster than that of 1997, one of the most powerful to date.

Weather predictions

The influence of El Niño on weather conditions “is neither systematic nor uniform”, says meteorologist Seydou Tinni Halidou, head of the Regional Hydrometeorological and Climate Monitoring Division at the Agrhymet Regional Center in Niger.

It is modulated by conditions in other ocean basins, particularly the tropical Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Indian Ocean, he explains.

According to the WMO’s June-September outlook, this El Niño is expected to bring above-normal rainfall across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and below-normal rainfall across parts of the tropical Indian Ocean and Indian subcontinent.

In Bangladesh, floods and landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains have already affected more than 1.1 million people and displaced over 36,500, and strong El Niño conditions raise the risk of more to come, the World Food Programme warned.

Across equatorial Africa, land areas bordering the northern Gulf of Guinea are forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, while below-normal rainfall is predicted for the Greater Horn of Africa.

Below-normal rainfall is forecast for parts of Central America, the Caribbean and northwestern South America.

The WMO has also warned of hotter-than-average temperatures around the globe in July and August.

Africa braces for floods and droughts

Historically, El Niño has brought drought to the Sahel and Southern Africa while triggering floods in East Africa. A repeat of this scenario would worsen food insecurity, disrupt livelihoods and increase disease outbreaks across the continent, experts warn.

Climatologist Norbert Tchouaffé, rector of Kesmonds International University in Ngaoundéré, Cameroon, told SciDev.Net: “El Niño manifests itself in Africa primarily through intense rainfall, flooding, higher temperatures, and droughts,” which can result in water shortages and reductions in staple food output.

“Agricultural seasons become more unpredictable, complicating planting and harvesting schedules. And crop losses can lead to higher food prices and food insecurity,” he warns.

For Tchouaffé, this demands a coordinated response between governments, local authorities, meteorological services, civil society organisations, and the wider population.

Obed Ogega, climate scientist and programme management lead at the International Institute for Environment and Development in Nairobi, says governments have little time to prepare.

He told SciDev.Net: “The writing is on the wall. Studies from last year and numerous forecasts this year have warned us that there is an El Niño ahead.

“African governments must make resources available to deal with the impending crisis.”

Flash floods killed more than 30 people in Nairobi in March and caused millions of dollars’ worth of damage, highlighting the vulnerability of many African countries to extreme weather.

Ogega says governments must strengthen drainage systems, roads and other infrastructure to better withstand such events. Many died in the Nairobi floods because roads and stormwater drainage systems failed under the pressure of intense rainfall.

He urges governments to invest in early warning systems and engage with at-risk communities.

“Communities need to shift from being mere beneficiaries or victims to becoming agents and drivers of effective local climate action and resilience strengthening,” he added.

Halidou agrees that community engagement is key: “We need to improve the dissemination of climate information down to the community level and systematically integrate climate forecasts into the planning of sensitive sectors such as agriculture, livestock, water, health, energy, and disaster management.”

He says the Western Sahel is expected to face rainfall deficits and prolonged dry spells, leading to pasture degradation, water shortages and reduced hydroelectric output. Central and Eastern Sahel and Gulf of Guinea countries are likely to see average to above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of livestock diseases, localised flooding and damage to roads, dams and power grids.



Peter Ofware, Kenya country director at the non-profit Helen Keller International, says excessive rainfall in Africa will likely increase the spread of malaria and waterborne diseases such as cholera, while crop loss will worsen hunger and malnutrition.

“All of these are a cause for major concern for us,” says Ofware, stressing that women and children will be worst hit.

“Child malnutrition will definitely be a big issue during this period, which will require coordinated efforts between various institutions and agencies to deliver the needed interventions.”

He says investing in technologies such as early warning systems and drones for delivering medical aid to hard-to-reach places could improve the emergency response.

Brazil models El Niño preparedness

In Brazil, the government has seen the need to get ahead, establishing an Interministerial Situation Room to prepare for and respond to potential El Niño-linked disasters. The aim is to coordinate the actions of federal, state, and municipal governments and national agencies, enabling rapid mobilisation of emergency resources.

On 30 June, Brazil’s Ministry of Health launched a package of measures to prepare the national health system for the impacts of El Niño. This includes a National Heat Risk Dashboard, which will issue heat alerts up to five days in advance to help authorities anticipate risks and organise health services before a heatwave.

The plan includes investments of R$9.8 billion (US$1.92 billion) through to 2035 to strengthen the health system’s capacity to respond to extreme climate events.

But climatologist Lincoln Muniz Alves, of Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research, believes Brazil still needs to move from a post-disaster response model to a culture of prevention, resilience, and climate adaptation.

“Proactive action and disaster preparedness are our best tools for coping with the phenomenon,” he says.

Whether this El Niño will be among the strongest “will only be confirmed between mid-August and September,” according to Alves. Either way, forecasts point to drought for large parts of northern South America and northeastern Brazil, he says.

Paulo Artaxo, professor of environmental physics at the University of São Paulo, warned that reduced rainfall in northern Brazil “could leave the Amazon more vulnerable to wildfires”.

“The phenomenon can also lower river levels, as it did in 2023 and 2024, disrupting transportation and limiting access for riverside communities that rely on waterways as their primary means of travel and for the transport of essential supplies.”

Meanwhile, above-average rainfall is expected across the southern part of the continent.

On Monday (13 July) the Chilean government declared an emergency in ten regions as the country braced for heavy rainfall and winds in central-southern regions. Prolonged drought is expected in the north.

Heavy rainfall could also trigger floods in Argentina’s Mesopotamia region, warns meteorologist Matilde Rusticucci, emeritus professor at the University of Buenos Aires and principal researcher at the National Scientific and Technical Research Council.

She told SciDev.Net: “The livestock sector would be seriously affected, […] agriculture would face difficulties harvesting crops, and people in low-lying areas could be forced to relocate.”

For Rusticucci El Niño preparedness is essential, but she has yet to see any “concrete measures” in Argentina.

‘Safety nets’ for Asia

“Regrettably, most Southeast Asian countries are ‘reactive’ rather than pro-active” when it comes to preparing for coming shocks, says Paul Teng, visiting senior fellow on climate change in at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore. He says public spending has been diverted to the fuel crisis sparked by conflict in the Middle East.

“The biggest threat on Southeast Asian agriculture emanating from the predicted ‘Super El Nino” is from the anticipated disruptions in water availability and temperature spikes,” he predicts.

He says “too little and too much water” and exceptionally high temperatures negatively affect seed development, plant growth, and yields of rice and palm oil, two of the region’s key crops.

Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam are expecting reduced rice yields this coming season, he adds, likely leading to price hikes and food inflation.

For Teng the problem “is not just the weather”. “We are facing a multi-crisis that is nearing a perfect storm because of the events of the past year,” he says, citing the rise in fertiliser prices and subsequent impacts on rural economies.

Southeast Asian governments should prepare “bigger safety nets to buffer the affected households against food insecurity,” he adds.

B.L.Madhavan, a physicist and atmospheric researcher at India’s National Atmospheric Research Laboratory says a particularly strong event could have “cascading impacts on food security and commodity markets if droughts affect multiple agricultural regions simultaneously”.

Early warning systems should adopt a “multi-hazard approach”, he says, explaining that El Niño influences extreme heat, air quality, wildfire potential, water availability, food prices, and public health.

While strong El Niño events have been associated historically with below-normal monsoon rains and increased drought risks in many parts of India, “El Niño does not automatically mean a drought,” he adds.

Outcomes also depend on climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, a natural climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Indian Ocean and cooler-than-average waters in the east.

Satellite observations, now well integrated in India’s forecasting, are “indispensable” for informing early warning systems and enabling seasonal forecasts months in advance, says Madhavan.

“The challenge now is less about obtaining observations and more about translating forecasts into timely decisions at the local level,” he adds.

Farmers should closely follow district-level agrometeorological advisories rather than relying solely on seasonal forecasts, Madhavan advises. Practical measures could include adjusting sowing dates ahead of delayed rains; selecting drought-tolerant or shorter-duration crop varieties and conserving soil moisture through mulching and reduced tillage.

MidEast faces ‘water bankruptcy’

The Middle East and North Africa could face a combination of climate, food security and economic pressures if El Niño develops as expected.

The region has the world’s highest per capita dependence on imported cereals, while ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has strained energy and fertiliser supply chains. As El Niño affects crop production in major exporting countries, global grain prices are expected to remain under pressure, further increasing food import bills across the region.

Several countries also face a higher risk of drought. In Sudan, where conflict has already devastated agricultural infrastructure, an El Niño-induced rainfall shortage in the rain-fed sorghum and millet belts of Gedaref and Sennar could worsen crop failures.

Sudanese hydrologist Elfatih Eltahir, professor of civil and environmental engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told SciDev.Net that El Niño events are associated with below-average rainfall over the Ethiopian Highlands and correspondingly lower Nile flows.

“Although this relation is not a perfect predictor, the odds are such that relatively dry conditions are to be expected in the Nile basin this upcoming season,” he says.

The Nile Basin Initiative’s Seasonal Hydrological Outlook also points to below-normal river flows across the Blue Nile and Atbara.

Iranian water expert Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), says many countries are already experiencing “water bankruptcy”, where water withdrawals consistently exceed natural recharge, causing lasting damage to ecosystems and reducing resilience to climate variability.

Reduced rainfall or prolonged drought can intensify pressure on shared water resources, complicate regional cooperation and worsen environmental problems such as dust storms, wetland degradation and wildfires.

“When wetlands dry up in Iraq, Syria, or Turkey due to drought, their neighbours are affected too,” Madani says, highlighting the inter-connected nature of climate impacts.

While wetter conditions could temporarily ease water shortages in some areas, Madani cautions that they could also increase flood risks.

“Iran is a very large country and has dams that can take advantage of the extra rain, but they are not evenly distributed. It is quite possible to face a flood where you did not expect one,” he says.

During the previous El Niño cycle in 2023-2024, intense storms triggered floods across Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, killing hundreds of people.

“We have built our cities, determined the capacity of our reservoirs, and the height of our dams based on the assumption that the climate system is stationary. It’s not, and that’s why we aren’t ready,” Madani adds.

“We need both hard infrastructure, like dams, and soft infrastructure, like policies, in addition to coordination between the warning system and the evacuation system, based on smart governance and infrastructure.”

Globally, the jury may still out on whether this will be one of the strongest El Niño events yet.

But one thing is clear: “The places least equipped to absorb another shock are the ones in the crosshairs,” says Bob Kitchen, IRC vice president for emergencies.

He adds: “Acting now, before the rain falls, is far cheaper and far more humane than responding after people have lost everything.”

This piece was produced by SciDev.Net’s Global desk.