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The 21st century could see more warming, more quickly, than was previously estimated, according to a new approach to modelling the Earth’s climate.
Average global temperatures could increase by 5.5°C by 2100, the model estimates – around 1.5°C more than one commonly accepted forecast. The new model, developed by the UK’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, takes a more holistic approach than earlier prediction systems.
The model accounts for as many influences as possible, including volcanoes belching out millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide, fluctuations in the Sun’s activity, as well as changing levels of greenhouse gas and ozone. It also allows oceans to affect the land, and vice versa.Link to full Nature Science Update article