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Recent and prospective adoption of genetically modified cotton: A global CGE analysis of economic impacts

The authors of this report use a "computable general equilibrium" model to assess current and future economic impacts of Bt cotton. The document argues that the potential advantages of Bt cotton adoption are likely to be greater in poorer countries — especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, it predicts that the benefits of Bt cotton adoption would be larger than the benefits of dismantling trade-distorting subsidies that rich countries use to support cotton cultivation and exports.

The econometric model used by the researchers does not measure environmental or human health effects, so cannot evaluate the impact of these effects on overall welfare. The paper is clearly presented and accessible to non-economists.