SciDev.Net

This journal article, written by three researchers in Trinidad and Tobago, looks at malaria in the Caribbean. It asks why there are still outbreaks — including a big one in Jamaica in 2006/2007 — when the disease was allegedly eliminated in the late 1950s. The authors review malaria and vector data from across the Caribbean, summarising the pattern of imported cases as well as indigenous ones.

They identify three essential conditions for malaria transmission: presence of the vector, imported organisms and susceptible human hosts — all of which the authors show still exist across the Caribbean.

The authors suggest specific actions for regional policymakers to combat malaria. These include enhancing vector control skills, strengthening surveillance with new technologies, upgrading malaria therapy, increasing prevention strategies such as bed nets and raising public awareness of malaria. They emphasise that the role of climate change must be considered too, saying that rising temperatures could lead to new malaria vectors entering and colonising Caribbean islands and transmitting malaria on a major scale. But the authors are also careful to point out that the link to climate change is uncertain and remains contested in scientific circles.

Paul Reiter, a researcher on insects and infectious disease at the Institut Pasteur in France, is not convinced that climate change will cause a rise in malaria in tropical regions. In this opinionated review he sets out to dispel widely held "common misconceptions" about the effect of climate variability on future transmission.

To do so, he examines the history of malaria. He finds that in the past, contrary to expectations, climate has often not affected the transmission of the malaria parasite. Researchers claim that the Anopheles mosquito that carries the parasite cannot survive extreme temperatures, yet Reiter cites examples of the mosquito finding ways to adapt. In Sudan, for example, they can survive temperatures of over 55 degrees Celsius by hiding in buildings in daytime and only feeding after midnight.

Reiter's main disagreement with prediction models is that they only look at how one climate variable, temperature, is likely to interact with mosquito populations. Temperature, rainfall and humidity are interconnected and cannot be analysed separately, he says. The ecology of mosquitoes and humans is too complex to predict future malaria prevalence and incidence from temperature alone, he adds.

This opinion article, published by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), argues that the real challenges to effective preparation for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) are creating robust governance and funding structures, not just capacity building.

The authors outline the practicalities of developing REDD mechanisms. They note that REDD could potentially mitigate the risk of climate change, conserve biodiversity and support development in forest areas. They express concern, however, that some approaches to implementing REDD projects have had limited success and note that reducing degradation can be particularly challenging.

The report concludes with suggestions for ensuring that REDD frameworks move from preparation to successful deployment. These include careful consideration of development implications for measures taken to promote reduced forest dependence and improve links between public and private finance to encourage complementary use of funds.

This report, submitted by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, looks at how smallholder agriculture could help mitigate climate change. It focuses on soil carbon sequestration, which, say the authors, has high mitigation potential and is relevant to smallholders, although it is currently excluded from the Clean Development Mechanism.

One issue highlighted by the report is how to quantify mitigation through soil carbon sequestration. It proposes a combined measurement and modelling approach and the steps needed to implement this are discussed. These include creating a fund for pilot projects, agreeing field and lab protocols, establishing a common data archive and devising monitoring and evaluation methods.

The report also asks how carbon finance can be linked to the smallholder agricultural sector. It argues that enabling agricultural mitigation from developing countries will mean creating institutions that can aggregate carbon crediting among many stakeholders, facilitating the flow of carbon finance, building capacity and agreeing property rights to the carbon benefits generated.

This discussion paper from the South Centre and Center for International Environmental Law, discusses the international transfer of environmentally sound technologies within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The authors present an overview of the UNFCCC's structure for negotiation, including the legal frameworks. They review the history of the technology transfer debate from the inception of the UNFCCC to the post-Poznan landscape and discuss relevant intellectual property agreements including the World Intellectual Property Organization.

They conclude that the expert group on technology transfer will continue to influence how technology transfer is treated within the UNFCCC and call on industrialised countries to recognise the real need for technology transfer and funds from developing countries, rather than using technology transfer as a political tool to bargain for binding mitigation targets.

This article, published by Mongabay.com, discusses the use of forest conservation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in the Amazon. The author describes the 'reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation' (REDD) mechanism included in the Bali roadmap for international agreement on climate change. He gives a brief history of REDD, explains how it could work and discusses complicating factors including land rights, measurement of deforestation rates, displacement effects of conservation and funding.

The author also discusses how promoting ecosystem services could provide a route to conserving rainforests, citing the example of Canopy Capital — a UK private equity firm that recently bought the rights to environmental services generated by a rainforest reserve in Guyana. He also examines other market incentives that could be used, including satellite surveillance to enforce conservation and certification for farmers following conservation rules.

This discussion paper, published by the International Food Policy Research Centre, examines the potential for mitigating climate change through carbon trading, with particular emphasis on Sub-Saharan Africa.

The authors provide an overview of global carbon markets, highlighting Africa's share in these, while outlining the obstacles African nations face in participating. They also assess mitigation opportunities in agriculture, land use and forestry in the region.

They conclude that Sub-Saharan Africa has much potential for mitigating emissions through forestry and cropland management, but action is constrained by existing capacity, funds, property rights and the price of CO₂ equivalents. They also suggest that integrating the region into global carbon markets will require new international capacity-building and advisory services, simpler rules for participating in the Clean Development Mechanism, access to emission allowances and credits, and more involvement in voluntary markets.

This collection of features and commentaries, published by Nature, reflects the broad spectrum of activities and opinions of members and associates of TWAS, the academy of sciences for the developing world.

With more than three dozen articles written by prominent scientists working on research or policy issues in the South, the collection examines a range of topics in science-based international development — from the relevance of subjects like mathematics or physics, to the increasing roles of biotechnology and renewable energy.

The achievements made and challenges still facing developing countries in key areas like agriculture, health, climate change and energy are also discussed. And evidence from across the South is presented to show how strengthening science can help achieve economic goals and what more is needed to ensure that knowledge and development are shared by all.

This paper discusses likely future changes in tropical cyclones, questioning whether they will become more intense following higher sea surface temperatures. The author outlines the different approaches currently taken to climate modelling and discusses the results of characterising current and future climate using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg model, comparing them to observations.

Most climate models predict stronger tropical cyclones in a warmer climate, as an increase in latent heat provides more energy for the storms. But the author claims there is less evidence for a reduction in the frequency of storms in a warmer climate. Still, such a reduction could result from a general weakening of large-scale atmospheric circulation (which reduces the number of cyclones) caused by the rapid increase in water vapour that would follow a rise in global temperatures.

In this manifesto, John Mathews, professor of strategic management at Australia's Macquarie University, challenges development organisations to reconsider their position on biofuels. He says countries should follow Brazil, China and India in forging a "new pathway of industrial development", based around biofuels.

Mathews argues that although China and India are seen as big polluters, they, together with Brazil, are actually paving the way for developing nations to invest in renewable energy.

He outlines practical steps for creating renewable energy industries, citing Brazil — the world's leading producer of biofuels — as an example. Mathews sets out 10 arguments for biofuels in the developing world.

International efforts to address climate change tend to focus on mitigation — the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Another response is adapting to the unavoidable impacts caused by past emissions. Yet adaptation plays a minor role in UN climate negotiations — this report argues that it must be considered on an equal footing with mitigation.

After an introduction to the history of adaptation, the report outlines key policy issues and summarises international adaptation efforts to date. It proposes three potentially complementary approaches to future international efforts on adaptation; using the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to enforce adaptation, integrating adaptation with development and providing climate 'insurance'.

It asks how adaptation can be given greater attention internationally. Its premise is that adaptation requires a concerted effort that benefits from international cooperation. But this is a contested notion.

Technology transfer is considered instrumental in building capacity in developing countries, especially for meeting energy needs. This paper offers advice on how relationships between investors and communities can foster effective and efficient transfer of technologies.

Technology transfer must be relevant to local development; thus, community and business partners must establish their needs. The paper also illustrates how important assurance mechanisms, transaction costs and trust are in creating a successful technology transfer project. The key lessons include feasibility assessments, to minimise transaction costs while maximising assurance mechanisms, and to raise awareness of local politics.

This paper is the result of the study examining the potential for carbon mitigation in developing countries.  It considers country-specific areas with potential for avoiding deforestation,  deforestation through assisted regeneration, and adoption of sustainable agricultural practices.

The analysis in this paper estimates that over the next ten years, forty-eight major tropical and subtropical developing countries could potentially reduce the atmospheric carbon burden by about 2.2 billion tonnes. Assuming a price of $10 per tonne of carbon and a discount rate of 3%, the authors suggest that this would generate a net present value of about $16.1 billion for these countries collectively. However, realising such potential would require substantially greater policy support and investment in sustainable land uses than is currently the case.

While somewhat technical, and weak on the sociological and institutional impacts of carbon projects, this paper provides a useful example of the calculations involved in estimating economic benefits of carbon sequestration projects.

This CICERO working paper focuses on policy issues associated with carbon sinks and provides a good overview of the potential and costs involved in implementing the land use,  land use change and forestry options under the Kyoto Protocol.

After a brief background section on the relevant articles of the Protocol, the paper estimates the capacity of the world’s forests for carbon uptake, and projects the associated costs of doing so. While the paper reveals significant variations between the gain and cost, it is suggested that sequestration projects in developing countries are far less expensive than in the North.

This accessible paper includes some technical details on methods for carbon accounting. It also provides a useful section on the outcomes and implications of climate negotiations.