Climate change could hit crops far worse than thought

The strength of evidence on how severe the impact will be differed for different crops and regions.

The study says that that the development of new crop varieties and uptake of new technologies — the most costly adaptation options — are likely to bring the most benefits.

But since these will require substantial investment from farmers, governments and development agencies, "it is vital that any policy decisions to support their implementation, particularly aid investments, are informed by a synthesis of best available evidence and not distorted by single studies".  

"We need to ensure as much evidence as possible is gathered on the impact of climate change before making decisions on how to move forward," said Jerry Knox, lead author of the study and a researcher at Cranfield University, United Kingdom, in a press release.

The findings have led some Indian researchers to question whether India's National Mission on Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) will be sufficient to cope with the predicted impacts of climate change.

"The whole agenda [of NMSA] is dictated by production enhancement for national food security which is likely to push agriculture practices against the environment and create more complex problems," said Rajeshwari Raina, a scientist at the National Institute of Science Technology and Developmental Studies.

She added that greater priority should be given to help small farmers adjust to such conditions and to neglected areas like coastal agriculture.

But Pramod Aggarwal, regional programme leader for the CGIAR research programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, said that most climate impact projections do not account for the steps scientists and governments are taking to combat the effects of climate change, such as breeding new crop breeds.