SciDev.Net

The authors of this article analysed simulation results from a regional climate model for the northern Indian Ocean to predict likely changes in the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal from 2041–2060.

They find that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to more frequent cyclones in the region, particularly during the post-monsoon period. In addition, the number of intense cyclones and storm surges will increase. These results are consistent with other trend analyses that show intensification of cyclones in the bay during the last century.

But the research described in this paper only deals with simulations from one future climate scenario. To obtain better regional climate projections, the authors suggest it is necessary to examine simulations from more scenarios.

This paper, prepared for the Global Urban Summit, proposes a framework for building climate change adaptation and mitigation measures into India's urban renewal programmes. This involves multiple government stakeholders at national, state and city levels.

The author begins with a description of the urbanisation trends in India and outlines the climate risks facing the subcontinent, including changing rainfall patterns and the potential for more drought, flooding and extreme weather events like cyclones.

The author outlines the vulnerability of urban populations and suggests that reducing it requires a public policy shift towards mainstreaming climate change risk assessment, adaptation and mitigation measures into ongoing national hazard mitigation programmes, and linking them to urban renewal in the largest cities.

Specific measures highlighted by the author include making building data public, building flood defences, strengthening existing infrastructure to withstand disasters and relocating highly vulnerable populations.

The authors of this article use satellite data to examine trends in the maximum intensities that cyclones can achieve during their lifetimes.

Results from previous analyses of tropical cyclone trends have been questioned due to a lack of consensus regarding data reliability. Moreover results have not been matched to theory because the focus has mainly been on changes in mean tropical cyclone statistics.

In this article, the authors conclusively show significant increases in the maximum wind speeds achieved by the strongest cyclones across all ocean basins except the South Pacific Ocean, with the largest increases occurring over the North Atlantic and northern Indian Oceans.

These findings are consistent with the idea that as seas warm, cyclones become more intense because the ocean has more energy that can be converted to tropical cyclone wind.

This report by the Institute for Development Studies details the results of a pilot project in Bangladesh aimed at developing a screening process for the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to identify and manage climate change impacts on development investments.

The authors highlight predictions that climate change in Bangladesh may lead to stronger cyclones, increased flooding during the monsoon rains and exacerbated drought in the dry season.

They suggest that raising roads and improving drainage could be a cost-efficient way to reduce the impact. Other options recommended for managing risks include paying greater attention to infrastructure design in health, education and private sector development programmes; and to non-structural measures such as livelihood diversification, education and training about disaster risks and adaptation, and improved research and monitoring.

The authors conclude that DFID should support dialogue on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, integrate priorities identified by the Bangladeshi government, increase emphasis for assistance on urban areas, and stimulate a multi-donor dialogue about water issues.

This paper discusses likely future changes in tropical cyclones, questioning whether they will become more intense following higher sea surface temperatures. The author outlines the different approaches currently taken to climate modelling and discusses the results of characterising current and future climate using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg model, comparing them to observations.

Most climate models predict stronger tropical cyclones in a warmer climate, as an increase in latent heat provides more energy for the storms. But the author claims there is less evidence for a reduction in the frequency of storms in a warmer climate. Still, such a reduction could result from a general weakening of large-scale atmospheric circulation (which reduces the number of cyclones) caused by the rapid increase in water vapour that would follow a rise in global temperatures.

The WHO has provided its own estimates of how non-communicable diseases are set to rise in developing countries. These authors pool data from national registries and international databases to compare data on the differing burden from individual diseases. They outline the risk factors associated with the diseases.

The main three killers are cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer. The paper ranks different types of cancer by how many people in developing countries they kill (lung and breast cancer are the deadliest) and also ranks diabetes prevalence by country (India, followed by China, has the highest prevalence).

To tackle these diseases, say the authors, people need to look closely at the risk factors in their life – eating healthily and exercising can do much to reduce the chances of getting one of these diseases.

The way discussions about biotechnology are framed is also dealt with, concluding that innovative, new techniques are required to create a rational dialogue with the public.

This annotated bibliography of mostly online resources covers the relationship between biofuels and climate change.

The bibliography is divided into ten sections: Biofuels; GM trees; carbon sinks and trading; land use change — effects on atmospheric carbon; deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions linked to biofuels; biofuels and food production; biofuels production — what's the energy balance?; bio-regional energy; food miles; and other oil crops — search facilities.

Innovation systems perspectives on agricultural research and technological change are fast becoming a popular approach to the study of how society generates, disseminates, and utilises knowledge. It provides an opportunity to study and explore complex relationships between the many agents and institutions that make up an innovation system. Early applications of the innovation systems framework to developing-country agriculture suggest opportunities for more intensive and extensive analysis.

This paper analyses these applications and suggests several ways of strengthening the mode of inquiry and quality of analysis. This paper will be of interest to science and technology policy analysts and policymakers in developing countries seeking to apply innovative concepts to agriculture.

This book-length report details a study by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) that aimed to map vulnerability to the impacts of climate change in Africa. 

Climate change models of four different future scenarios were used and the impacts on agriculture assessed. Biophysical and social vulnerability were also analysed, using indicators developed specifically for this research.

The outcomes suggest, if tentatively, that many already vulnerable systems may be adversely affected by climate impacts, including the mixed arid-semiarid systems in the Sahel and rangelands in eastern Africa, the Great Lakes region, the coastal regions of eastern Africa and the drier zones of southern Africa.

The report concludes that adaptation is best researched at national or regional levels, not the macro level, due to local variability, and that communities themselves need to become much more involved in adaptation strategies.

This report published by the IUCN (The World Conservation Union) is based on participatory consultations with stakeholders and provides a comprehensive and in-depth account of West Africa's vulnerability to climate impacts on water resources, wetlands and desertification. 

The report contains two parts; the first section details the regional context, climate impacts on water resources and West Africa's preparedness at present. This is followed by an outline of a potential regional adaptation strategy, its methods and its implementation. 

This report offers recommendations on how African water resources specifically may be affected by climate change, but also ways collaboration for adaptation can be strategic and useful.

In recent years, case studies of countries' experiences of adapting to the impacts of climate change have begun to emerge. This paper is a summary of a presentation given at the 2006 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change African Workshop on Adaptation and outlines adaptation planning experiences from Tanzania.

After background information and a summary of environmental stresses and the regulatory context in Tanzania, the paper outlines in detail the types of adaptation strategies the country is implementing. 

The paper highlights that many adjustments are necessary at an international, national and local level. Adaptation to climate change, the authors demonstrate, can mean anything from fortifying early warning systems and regulating water rights to using local seed varieties for their drought-resistant characteristics.

The brief provides an accessible and hands-on summary of adaptation activities in Tanzania and should be useful to practitioners in developing and developed countries alike.

This paper provides a call for a new Green Revolution focused on Africa. It summarises the successes and failures of the original Green Revolution, setting out the challenge of igniting a new one that can succeed in Africa.

The authors identify the need for more robust seed varieties, more trained scientists, improved inputs and cultivation practices, better supply and marketing infrastructure, and greater access to irrigation. Achieving these, say the authors, will require strong partnerships between philanthropists, governments, donors, research institutes and the private sector, as well as decisive leadership.

This scientific article provides an insight into the status of public research in genetically modified (GM) crops in Egypt, Kenya, South Africa and Zimbabwe in 2004.

The authors document 54 transgenic 'events' — specific instances of genetic transformation — across the four countries. They identify work to develop GM strains for 20 crops, including cotton, maize, potatoes, sugar cane, tomatoes and wheat. South Africa is shown to be a particularly important centre for biotech research, accounting for 28 out of the 54 events examined.

The authors call for a simplified system to facilitate regulatory approval of GM crop trials and commercial releases across the continent as a whole and suggest measures to encourage inter-institutional links and South–South collaborations.

This research article, by Rosemary Wolson at the University of Cape Town, assesses South Africa's biotechnology policies, reviewing three major initiatives — the national research and development strategy, biotechnology strategy and proposed laws to govern intellectual property rights derived from publicly funded research. Wolson explains the origins, goals and implementation of each.

The projects aim to create a coordinated strategy for promoting biotechnology in South Africa. Wolson concludes that the efforts are an encouraging sign of governmental commitment, but notes the continuing challenge of integrating the individual projects into a coherent framework. This may depend on promoting social networks to catalyse innovative industries.

She calls for the government to encourage more private enterprise and investment while remaining committed to basic research.

This article is useful to anyone hoping to understand the policy framework for biotechnology in one of sub-Saharan Africa's key scientific and industrial powers.

In this research article, Victor Konde of the University of Zambia argues that industrial biotechnologies can improve food security in Africa through improved livestock feeds and vaccines, as well as biotechnological pesticides, fertilisers and herbicides. He adds that biotechnology can also help farmers process crop and livestock products for new markets.

But Africa must first overcome a number of key challenges, says Konde — including restrictions on agricultural exports, weaknesses in scientific capacity and investment, and a lack of diplomatic strength to effectively promote its interests in international negotiations.

The author proposes ways for African policymakers to encourage biotech enterprise and investment, collaborative and interdisciplinary research, strategic alliances and public–private partnerships.

This research article assesses the potential for biotechnological approaches to overcome major pests, diseases and weeds undermining food security in Africa. The eight authors review three major constraints — parasitic weeds and herbicide-resistant grasses, insect pests, including those carrying plant diseases, and mycotoxins that damage stored grains.

They note that biotechnological solutions to some of these are already being explored, such as insect resistance in maize, but they say that others, like the control of parasitic weeds, will require longer-term study. The authors argue that these should be prioritised in public research programmes and supported by the private sector through donations of useful genes and technologies.

Their methodical discussion helps identify key priority areas for crop biotech research in Africa. This article will be useful to policy analysts, decision makers and research managers working in the field.

The African Union (AU) developed the African Model Law on Safety in Biotechnology to help countries across the continent fulfil their obligations under the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety and manage related issues.

The AU encourages the development of a common position on biosafety regulation (see AU Biosafety Project) across the continent. It does not have the authority to legislate on behalf of its members — but it promotes the Model Law as a framework for individual countries to use in creating their own laws and institutions.

The Model Law is being revised through an ongoing consultation process before submission to AU governments for possible adoption at national level.

These proceedings from the 2006 World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology and Bioprocessing broadly focus on the development of new biotechnology and bioprocessing industries, including biofuel crops.

Although they give a predominantly developed world perspective, they may be of interest to developing countries examining the potential of GM crops or other agricultural biotechnologies for producing energy or industrial compounds to address their own priorities and needs.

The discussions range across scientific, technical, economic and political topics. The section on feedstocks for bioprocessing is particularly interesting as it considers the potential for creating new molecules from plants, biomass harvesting and processing to produce energy.

This document from Friends of the Earth is a partisan analysis challenging claims that genetically modified (GM) crops have brought significant benefits for the environment and poverty alleviation.

It nevertheless provides a useful summary of the key areas where the environmental movement takes issue with the GM movement. The authors are particularly critical of the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications, which they argue paints a misleadingly positive picture of the impacts of GM crops.

Drawing on a wide range of sources, they examine several GM crops in the United States, GM soybeans in South America and the international community's experience with GM cotton. They also review the current status and prospects for rice, wheat, pharmaceutical crops, biofuels, bentgrass, cassava, sweet potato and potato.